Approaching Target - Market Analysis for Jan 6th, 2026

With the market holding support in wave v, today’s rally is attempting to make a push towards the target overhead.  However, the structure of this last segment higher has turned overlapping, so it can represent several potentials in the micro count.

The least bullish is that we are topping as I write this update, as the futures could argue for this wave v to be an ending diagonal.  The more bullish scenario is that we have a (i)(ii) set up in this wave v, which can project us up towards the 6980SPX region.  

So, let’s talk about support.  And, this is what I sent out a few hours ago as an alert:

“While we now have a structure that can count as a completed 5-waves off Friday's low, we have a bit of a quandary.  You see, we have not struck a higher high for a potential wave 5.  And, I am not willing to accept a truncated top until the market proves that with a break down below Friday's low of 6824SPX.  

So, there are several ways this can resolve.  Either the high we just struck is really wave iii of wave 5, and we hold over 6897 and rally in a 5th wave . . . or, we stay over 6897 and we set up a micro (i)(ii) within the wave v of 5. Do you see the commonality?  As long as we stay over 6897SPX, we can look for another extension towards 6955SPX.  

However, a break of 6897 opens the door to this being complete.  But, again, until we break below 6824, I am not willing to accept that yet.”

So, as it stands right now, as long as the market remains over support, we look higher.  Should we break below 6824SPX, then we can begin looking lower.  And, a break of 6897SPX would place me in a neutral posture, waiting to see how the market develops between 6824 and 6897.